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Hizbullah: One Year after Nasrallah's Elimination

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Lt.-Col. (ret.) Orna Mizrahi - A year after the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbullah still clings to its extremist ideology. The ceremonies marking the anniversary of Nasrallah's elimination were attended by large crowds at several locations and served as an opportunity for a show of force. Hizbullah's current secretary-general, Naim Qassem, declared that the organization remains ready to confront anyone attempting to force it to disarm. Media coverage glorified Nasrallah and the path of resistance he led for 32 years as secretary-general. Hizbullah lost many of its commanders and fighters during the war (in an August 5 speech, Qassem claimed the organization had 5,000 dead and 13,000 wounded). The IDF claims to have eliminated 80% of Hizbullah's firepower, and its financial capabilities were severely diminished. Most serious of all, Hizbullah continues to be a daily target of IDF strikes - eliminating operatives and destroying its military infrastructure including ammunition depots and production facilities. The absence of Hizbullah's senior, veteran leaders who were killed in the war has also hampered its decision-making process. Naim Qassem lacks Nasrallah's abilities and authority. In practice, the Lebanese Army operates only to a very limited extent in southern Lebanon, continues to avoid clashes with Hizbullah, and focuses mainly on collecting weapons from Palestinian refugee camps (only from Fatah elements). The issue of disarmament is existential for Hizbullah, which adamantly insists on retaining its weapons - a central pillar of its power against both domestic and external adversaries. A year after the ceasefire took effect, Hizbullah appears to be regaining its footing. It is undergoing reorganization, recruiting new operatives, finding creative methods to smuggle weapons, and generating new sources of income through its networks in South America, Europe, and Africa. The group continues to enjoy broad popular support in Lebanon, maintains cooperation with the Shiite Amal movement, led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and retains the backing of Iran. The writer, a senior researcher at INSS, served for 26 years in the IDF and 12 years at the National Security Council in the Prime Minister's Office.
2025-10-19 00:00:00
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