Daily Alert Archives

The 12-Day War with Iran that Didn't Ignite the Middle East

(War on the Rocks) Dr. Ali Fathollah-Nejad - For decades, analysts warned that a conflict with Iran would unite the Iranian people behind the regime, unleash the vengeance Tehran foretold, set the Middle East ablaze, and send oil prices through the roof. Yet, none of this happened. Instead, the 12-Day War pitting Israel, and later the U.S., against Iran remained narrowly contained, and Tehran's vaunted "Axis of Resistance" stood idle. The confrontation exposed the limits of Iran's power, the fragility of its partnerships, and the deep gulf separating state and society in Iran. At the same time, Tehran's reluctance to provoke a war it cannot win will continue to limit how far it goes. Israel's attack was predicated upon vast intelligence penetration of Iran, especially the highest echelons. The acute fear over being surrounded by Israeli agents was also the reason why Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei fled to a bunker during Israel's assault. Iran's missile salvos on Israel in June 2025 led to more harm than in the April and October 2024 direct military confrontations between the two. Launching over 500 ballistic missiles and 1,100 drones, Iran killed 31, injured over 3,000, and displaced over 13,000. Pundits and scholars had long warned that a war on Iran would ultimately pit the West against a powerful alliance consisting of Iran, Russia, and China, effectively kicking off World War III. Yet, neither Moscow nor Beijing entered the war on Iran's side. Nor did they provide any military or even meaningful diplomatic support to Tehran to either arm it or to shield it. Instead, it was the Israeli-U.S. partnership that proved decisive against Iran. In June, Iran's top security and political figures, who had assembled in a Supreme National Security Council meeting, only escaped elimination by Israeli bombs by a whisker. Since the war, the conflict has relocated to below the radar of our attention, with a large number of explosions occurring at military-related locations in Iran, which its authorities have routinely attributed to gas leaks. The Iranian-born writer is director of the Center for Middle East and Global Order at the Hertie School in Berlin.
2025-10-12 00:00:00
Full Article