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What Is Hizbullah's Future?

(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah - The unprecedented blow suffered by Hizbullah at the hands of Israel brought drastic changes to the Lebanese reality. Suddenly, Hizbullah was a subject of criticism and mockery in Lebanon. Due to Hassan Nasrallah's opening of a "support front" facing Israel, 22 out 29 villages on the border with Israel were erased, while more than 60,000 houses were damaged and 120,000 residents of southern Lebanon had to flee. Hizbullah was accused of taking part in a war that did not concern the Lebanese at all. The Israeli response to the Hizbullah attack created a new reality. The power equation of mutual deterrence between Israel and Hizbullah that existed since 2006 was brushed away by Israel. Discovering Hizbullah's weakness, presidential elections, which Hizbullah had blocked, were held, and Joseph Aoun, the former army chief and a pro-American candidate, was elected president in January. Hizbullah lost the veto right it had held in previous governments. Forty custom officers who served the interests of Hizbullah at Beirut International Airport were fired. The landing of Iranian planes carrying cash to the militia was forbidden. The most significant blow to Hizbullah is the establishment of a new Sunni anti-Iranian and anti-Hizbullah regime in Syria, which stopped being the route through which weapons, manpower, sophisticated technologies, and money sent by Iran reached Lebanon. Yet, little by little, Hizbullah has come back to center stage. While the government has asked all militias in Lebanon to surrender their weapons, Hizbullah could not accept this. President Aoun knows he cannot order the army to disarm Hizbullah. His army would disintegrate into sectarian units after any such attempt. The writer, a special analyst for the Middle East at the Jerusalem Center, was formerly Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence.
2025-10-09 00:00:00
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