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Hostages, Rival Clans, and Empty Promises: The Next Middle East Flashpoint

(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Oded Ailam - For Israel, on the surface, the U.S. Gaza plan looks like a peak of achievements. An American administration that largely adopts Israel's wording and promises full backing is not to be taken for granted in an age of hostile public opinion and diplomatic pressure from every side. Israel has seemingly reached the optimal combination: a political-security plan tied to the declared war aims of Israel, with the White House providing a rubber stamp. Whether this will really take shape on the ground is far less clear. Hamas holds its cards tightly: the hostages. Demanding their sweeping release within 72 hours without leaving Hamas a single bargaining tool is almost fantasy. Even if Trump and Netanyahu believe they hold a binding document, Gaza's leaders will always find a way to avoid it. A hostage is held by a rogue clan. They need more time to locate certain captives. Delay will be built into the strategy. The issue of Hamas laying down its weapons may be the central landmine in a future agreement. Israel can insist, the U.S. can commit, but for Hamas this is about survival. Its greatest fear is local clans that will try to settle personal scores and perhaps also to seize Hamas's swollen cash reserves. Everyone hopes that the agreement will take form and be implemented, and that the hostages will come home. Yet there is a temptation to embrace an illusion: that a well-publicized ceremony and a detailed text can change complex political and social realities. In truth, deeper dynamics are stronger and more consistent than any piece of paper. The writer, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center.
2025-09-30 00:00:00
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