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Wasn't Hell Supposed to Break Loose if the U.S. Struck Iran?

(Wall Street Journal) Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh - For decades, American officials have averred that a U.S. attack on Iran would provoke a forever war in the Middle East. American officials saw any foreign intrusion as a gift to the regime, sure to revive its domestic fortunes. They assumed that the Iranian people, under threat, would set aside their grievances and tolerate, if not embrace, their Islamist overlords. The aftermath of this summer's 12-day war should bury these assumptions. More than 400 Iranian VIPs, including 30 Iranian generals and several nuclear scientists, might have died. But there have been no massive state-orchestrated rallies. There's no glory in national disgrace. Staging demonstrations to celebrate men who died in their apartments doesn't uplift the revolutionary cadre's morale. Instead, the mullahs and the IRGC have launched a vicious campaign of repression. Iranian authorities have arrested about 20,000 people and executed 262. This isn't about counterespionage; it's about intimidating a society that hasn't rallied around the flag. When selling his Iran nuclear deal, President Obama dismissed those who thought that "surgical strikes against Iran's facilities will be quick and painless." On June 4, talk-show host Tucker Carlson tweeted: "The first week of a war with Iran could easily kill thousands of Americans." Clearly, he was mistaken. Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the CIA, is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
2025-09-14 00:00:00
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