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Crafting an Alternative Post-Islamic Republic Order in Iran

(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Oded Ailam - In dealing with Iran, for decades the U.S. and Europe have focused on technicalities: centrifuge counts, enrichment percentages, monitoring cameras - instead of acknowledging that the entire game is rigged - that the regime itself is the problem. The West views Tehran through inspectors' reports and temporary agreements. But it misses the bigger picture - velayat-e faqih ("Guardianship of the Jurist") - the principle that makes Iran a militant theocracy, and the fiery ideology that drives Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: an uncompromising religious war against Zionism, Israel, and the liberal values of the "decadent" West. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini declared that the state holds legitimacy only if it is ruled by a senior cleric in the name of Shiite law. His authority supersedes president, parliament, and judiciary alike. Since 1989, Ali Khamenei has filled that role, consolidating unmatched power. In recent years, Iran has suffered military setbacks, strategic losses in Lebanon and Syria, economic collapse and drought. The regime's public image is eroding. At the same time, Khamenei is fading: ill, paranoid, fearful. Khamenei's guiding star has long been his burning hatred of Israel. For decades, he has pushed the most extreme regional line, even erecting in Tehran a "countdown clock" to Israel's destruction. To him, eradicating Zionism is not merely political - it is a religious, messianic duty. This is the West's blind spot - it ignores the ideological driver. The West must look beyond nuclear technicalities and confront the core issue: a regime in decline, anchored to a dying leader, ruling over a weary population hungry for change. Khamenei still blocks collapse, but he is waning. Once he dies, successors will scramble violently to re-establish control. The writer, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center.
2025-09-04 00:00:00
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