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Israel and Iran's Nuclear Program after the War

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Dr. Raz Zimmt and Maj.-Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman - The Israeli and American attack on Iran substantially rolled back Iran's nuclear capabilities. Iran is no longer considered a threshold state - one capable of enriching uranium to 90% weapons-grade material within two weeks of a political decision to do so. However, the war left Iran with residual capabilities that may be enough to support rebuilding efforts or even a covert breakout. The airstrikes severely damaged the three main facilities associated with Iran's uranium enrichment program, to the point where their rehabilitation is unlikely. Most of Iran's active centrifuges were likely destroyed, and Iran's production capabilities were damaged - although its extensive knowledge and expertise in this field remain. It can be assessed that Iran's motivation to obtain nuclear weapons has increased in light of the lessons learned from this war. This conflict has served to starkly illustrate the failure of Iran's deterrence doctrine against Israel and the U.S. Yet a decision to pursue a nuclear weapons breakout remains highly risky for Iran due to the threat of further military strikes by Israel or the U.S., and the demonstrated ability of Western intelligence to penetrate Iran's nuclear program. In addition, Israel - and potentially the U.S. - has shown a clear willingness to use force to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear infrastructure and from advancing toward weapons capability. However, the Iranian regime has already misjudged the intentions and capabilities of both Israel and the U.S., and it may miscalculate again. Preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons has been and remains the central goal for preserving the national security of the State of Israel. Israel cannot accept a nuclear-armed radical regime that seeks its destruction. This objective must be achieved while preserving Israel's ability to continue a comprehensive campaign against Iran to weaken the regime, limit its malign regional activities, and restrict its missile capabilities. Raz Zimmt, a veteran Iran watcher in the IDF, is Director of the Iran and the Shiite Axis program at INSS, where Tamir Hayman, former head of the IDF Intelligence Directorate, is the executive director.
2025-07-24 00:00:00
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