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Tehran Regime Change: Lessons from Chernobyl

(American Spectator) Gerald Steinberg - With the end of the 12-day war, the question of regime change in Iran remains central. To assess this scenario, it is useful to consider the collapse of the Soviet Union that began with the catastrophic accident at the nuclear reactor at Chernobyl in April 1986. Moscow tried to cover-up the disaster to avoid embarrassment, like the response in Tehran. The Chernobyl catastrophe symbolized a closed and incompetent political system that endangered the entire population, and the institutions lost legitimacy, power, and control. In examining the prospects of a similar scenario in Iran, many of the same factors are evident. The regime maintains power through repressive power and secrecy, but the Israeli military quickly destroyed Iran's defenses, followed by 12 days of continuous attacks, highlighting the government's vulnerability and incompetence. As in the Soviet strategy after Chernobyl, Tehran's propaganda platforms, including statements by the Supreme Leader, are desperately attempting to control the narrative by denying the blatant failures and making absurd claims of a great victory over the Zionist enemy. In Russia, the public greeted such efforts with sarcasm and derision. In the case of the Soviet Union, the erosion of legitimacy took four years until the final collapse. While there is no guarantee of regime change, the openings have been created. The writer is President of NGO Monitor and emeritus professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University.
2025-07-10 00:00:00
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