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A Year of Setbacks for Iran

(Al-Arabiya) Dr. Majid Rafizadeh - The Iranian government declared "victory" following a ceasefire with Israel that ended the devastating 12-day war. But the reality is stark: In the past year and a half, the Islamic Republic has watched its foundational pillars of influence crumble: its military prestige has been shattered, its nuclear deterrent set back, its closest regional allies have been weakened or lost entirely, and its "Axis of Resistance" has been weakened. These are deep structural wounds that may take decades to heal - if they ever do. The war that began on June 13, 2025, was a strategic humiliation for Iran. What started with a surprise Israeli operation rapidly evolved into one of the most precise and crippling military campaigns the Islamic Republic has ever faced. Within a short time, Israel eliminated more than 30 senior Iranian military figures, including the architects of Iran's warfare strategy, its ballistic missile programs, and its regional proxy operations. Israel proceeded to bombard many high-value military targets deep inside Iranian territory. Iran's ability to retaliate was feeble at best. In the end, Tehran was forced into accepting a ceasefire under pressure - from a position of desperation. One of the most shocking revelations of the war was just how easily and thoroughly Israel was able to dominate Iran's airspace, striking targets from Tehran to Isfahan without any significant resistance. This was a strategic disaster. Iran has spent decades cultivating the image of a self-reliant military power capable of defending its skies. That illusion has now been obliterated. To the average Iranian - and to the government's regional allies - the message was unmistakable: a small country like Israel, with the backing of the U.S., can dismantle Iran's defenses in a matter of days. The psychological impact of this defeat is enormous and will linger long after the physical damage has been repaired. Moreover, the blow to Iran's nuclear program strips the government of its ability to use the threat of nuclear escalation to extract concessions from the West, to rally domestic unity, or to scare its neighbors. Iran's enemies now see it as weakened and the era of Iran projecting power into the region without serious pushback may be over.
2025-07-06 00:00:00
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