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Between Shame and Power: Khamenei Has No Dilemma

(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Aviram Bellaishe - On June 18, 2025, Iranian state television aired a recorded message from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. On screen appeared a weary figure, with tense body language. His presence seemed designed to send the message: I am still alive. His words were a familiar litany of empty threats. This was not a speech meant to project strength, but to conceal vulnerability. It offered an attempt to maintain the illusion of stability - an image that has visibly fractured. What is clear to Khamenei is that, for now, he has lost control over the nuclear program. Whether the Americans bomb Fordow or defeat him through a new agreement, the outcome is the same. His overriding objective is to preserve his rule at any cost. The challenge troubling him is how to return to the negotiating table with minimal damage to his image, to his authority, and ideally, with some elements of the nuclear program still intact. Persian culture places deep value on personal and familial honor, where public humiliation is seen as one of the gravest indignities. Yet humiliation is the only way to act against one who fears humiliation. Khamenei's strategic assessment is that to save himself and the regime, he must endure the shame of an agreement. Israel must act swiftly while time remains - accelerating its strikes on nuclear and missile targets before the window closes and American pressure brings them to a halt. Even if a new agreement is eventually signed, Israel must understand it as a continuation of Iranian deception. In the Iranian view, the ultimate goal remains unchanged: the destruction of Israel. Therefore, Iran will never truly abandon its nuclear ambitions - only delay, disguise, or reposition them. The writer, Senior Director for Security, Diplomacy, and Communications at the Jerusalem Center, has served in senior government positions for over 25 years.
2025-06-20 00:00:00
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