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How Iran Lost

(Foreign Affairs) Afshon Ostovar - Over three decades, the hard-liners who control Iran's regime had built up what seemed like a formidable system of deterrence. They stockpiled ballistic missiles. They developed and advanced a nuclear enrichment program. Most important, they established a network of foreign proxies that could routinely harass Israeli and U.S. forces. But Iran's hard-liners overplayed their hand. After Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, the regime's leaders opted for a campaign of maximum aggression, unleashing their proxies at Israeli targets. Israel, in turn, was compelled to expand its offensive beyond Gaza. It succeeded in severely degrading Hizbullah, the most powerful of Tehran's proxies, and eviscerating Iranian positions in Syria - indirectly contributing to the collapse of the Assad regime. Iran unleashed the two largest ballistic missile attacks ever launched against Israel. But Israel, backed by the U.S. military and other partners, repelled those attacks and incurred little damage. It then struck back. In just a few days, Israel has done significant damage to Tehran's military and nuclear program. Its air defenses have been destroyed or made inoperable across most of the country. Added to this is the loss of the Iranian defense establishment's brain trust. Ali Khamenei and the IRGC have lost; the regional status quo they established is finished. The writer is an Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School.
2025-06-19 00:00:00
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