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A Miscalculation by Iran Led to Israeli Strikes' Extensive Toll, Iranian Officials Say

(New York Times) Farnaz Fassihi - Iran's senior leaders never expected Israel to strike before another round of talks that had been scheduled for Sunday in Oman, officials close to Iran's leadership said on Friday. They dismissed reports that an attack was imminent as Israeli propaganda meant to pressure Iran to make concessions in those talks, six senior Iranian officials and two members of the Revolutionary Guards said. On the night of Israel's attack, senior military commanders did not shelter in safe houses but stayed in their own homes. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards' aerospace unit, and his senior staff held an emergency war meeting at a military base in Tehran and were killed when Israel struck the base. On Friday, Iran's Supreme National Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss how the country should respond. Divisions emerged on whether Iran could sustain a prolonged war with Israel that could also drag in the U.S., given how badly its defense and missile capabilities were damaged. One official said in the meeting that if Israel responded by attacking Iran's infrastructure or water and energy plants, it could lead to protests or riots. A member of the Revolutionary Guards briefed on the meeting said that Ayatollah Khamenei had to decide between acting, and risking an all-out war that could end his rule, or retreating, which would be interpreted domestically and internationally as defeat. Ultimately, Khamenei ordered Iran's military to fire on Israel. Initially, the plan was to launch up to 1,000 ballistic missiles on Israel to overwhelm its air defense and ensure maximum damage, according to two members of the Guards. But Israel's strikes on missile bases had made it impossible to move missiles quickly from storage and place them on launchpads, they added.
2025-06-15 00:00:00
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