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Israel's Operation to End Hamas Rule over Gaza

(Substack) Maj. (ret.) Andrew Fox - UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy has called Israel's recent military push in Gaza "morally unjustifiable." Israel has launched an operation aimed at ending Hamas's rule over Gaza once and for all. Over the past year, Israel's strategy has been shaped by the constraints of American policy under the Biden administration, characterized by measured responses, humanitarian pauses, and repeated attempts at de-escalation. That phase is over. Hamas remains entrenched, hostages continued to be held captive. The January 2025 ceasefire solidified Hamas's grip on power and enabled it to rearm and reassert control in Gaza. The current offensive aims to dismantle Hamas entirely and bring the hostages home. Counterinsurgency warfare in densely populated urban areas is notoriously brutal, slow, and unpredictable. Yet if Israel fails to achieve its objectives swiftly, international pressure will intensify. The nightmare scenario is one in which Israel is compelled to cease operations before dismantling Hamas's leadership or securing the return of all hostages. In such a scenario, Hamas will emerge politically emboldened, asserting that they repelled the IDF, a narrative that will resonate across the region and beyond. Hamas regains legitimacy, Israeli deterrence is weakened, and the strategic status quo becomes entrenched. Either Israel is permitted to complete what it initiated or it is compelled to halt, still ensnared in the cycle of war, ceasefire, and inevitable relapse. The writer, who served in the British Army in 2005-21, is a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and a lecturer at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst.
2025-05-22 00:00:00
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