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Iran's Negotiation Method: Between Ideology and Economic Reality

(Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs) Oded Ailam - Iran's apparent return to the negotiating table with the United States does not necessarily indicate a true policy shift. It is likely a survival tactic, not a strategic transformation. In October 2025, key provisions of the 2015 nuclear agreement will expire: The end of restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile program will officially allow Iran to develop long-range missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. The end of the ban on development, procurement, and testing of advanced uranium enrichment technologies will give Iran full legitimacy to develop an industrial infrastructure for very rapid enrichment. The end of limits on civilian nuclear trade will allow Iran to purchase equipment, export knowledge, and develop "civilian" nuclear programs on a significant scale, with little realistic oversight. If these clauses expire without renewal or a new arrangement, the world will wake up to a reality where there are no longer significant legal obstacles preventing Iran from building a military nuclear infrastructure within mere weeks. Additionally, lifting the restrictions will affect Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, and possibly Egypt, who will see it as a green light to restart independent nuclear programs. The nuclear race in the Middle East will become overt, loud, and dangerous. Within this whole dynamic, Israel may find itself in real danger. If a new nuclear deal is reached that is only slightly better than its predecessor, the result could be a real existential threat to Israel and a victory for the Iran-led axis. The writer, former head of the Counterterrorism Division in the Mossad, is a researcher at the Jerusalem Center.
2025-04-22 00:00:00
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