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Israel Eyes Increasing Turkish Dominance in Syria

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Gallia Lindenstrauss - The U.S. announcement on April 18 about reducing American forces in Syria brings the troop levels back to what they were before the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. Turkey is pressuring the U.S. to withdraw its forces from Syria, viewing the cooperation between the American forces and the Kurdish-led forces in Syria - who played a key role in defeating ISIS - as having an element of support for Kurdish terrorism against Turkey. To achieve a full U.S. withdrawal, Turkey will need to convince Washington that it can assume responsibility for preventing a resurgence of ISIS. However, in the past, Turkey showed reluctance to fully commit to the fight against ISIS. In addition, Turkey will need to assure the U.S. that it will not target the Kurdish minority in northeastern Syria. Israel has argued that the U.S. withdrawal would only increase Turkish dominance in Syria. From Israel's perspective, a full withdrawal of American forces would represent a gain for Turkey and a setback for Israel. However, if the Americans condition the withdrawal of their forces on Turkish concessions - such as reducing Turkey's military presence in Syria, as well as a promise to grant rights to the Kurds in Syria under the leadership of al-Sharaa - this could help mitigate the threat posed by the new Syria toward Israel. The writer is a senior research fellow at INSS, specializing in Turkish foreign policy.
2025-04-22 00:00:00
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