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In the Nuclear Talks with the U.S., Iran Is Exuding Confidence

(Politico) Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh - Now that the Trump administration has decided to reopen negotiations with Iran, it is important that they understand the limits of sanctions to affect Iran's behavior. To be sure, sanctions (along with chronic mismanagement and systemic corruption) have depleted Iran's treasury and spurred inflation and unemployment. But they haven't in the slightest obliged the regime's leaders to forsake their faith, their missions, or their nuclear ambitions. The Islamic Republic has a pattern of using short-term retreats to pursue long-term, consistent goals. The regime gives ground when necessary but always circles back to take back its concessions. For the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the value of a nuclear weapon as the ultimate deterrent has never been higher, which is why Iranian VIPs are now discussing the utility of having atomic arms sooner, not later. Iran has entered talks with the Trump administration not because of external pressure but in order to preserve the essential features of its expanding nuclear infrastructure - and they feel confident they can achieve this if the talks proceed. The mullahs know that what matters most are protecting its new generation of centrifuges. Even a stringent inspection regime, unless supported by a well-placed human-intelligence network, would find locating these centrifuges an excruciatingly difficult task. Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the CIA, is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
2025-04-22 00:00:00
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