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Ayatollah Khamenei Will Never Concede Iran's Atomic Program

(Wall Street Journal) Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh - Many Americans fail to understand that for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, getting bombed is preferable to giving up the bomb. Khamenei knows that conceding Iran's atomic program would anger his core supporters, particularly among the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. The sight of him - known for decades for his willingness to cripple or kill his opponents - going wobbly in the face of Trump threats could provoke his constituents to take to the streets. The mullahs also understand that most Iranians despise them, and an internal insurrection could be around the corner if they are perceived as weak. Forcing Americans to engage in diplomacy that runs the clock is entirely acceptable to Tehran. Iranian leaders openly discuss their belief that recent regional convulsions and Trump's return to power increase the importance of atomic arms. Khamenei will continue to industrialize Iran's nuclear-weapons capacity. The Islamic Republic is already a threshold state, and as its atomic know-how and highly enriched uranium stockpiles increase, the clear efficacy of bombing Iran subsides. Khamenei may not even care that much about reinvigorated U.S. sanctions, since Chinese purchases of Iranian crude oil - almost all of Tehran's oil exports - haven't yet been diminished by Trump. Given the tariff war between Washington and Beijing, the odds that China will effectively resist anti-Iran U.S. sanctions have significantly increased. Is America willing to use force to try to stop Iran's development of an atomic bomb? The Obama-era hope that the clerical regime would somehow change its spots through diplomatic engagement is kaput. For the U.S., diplomacy has become either a diversion, an off-ramp from confrontation, or a prelude to war. Khamenei appears ready for a fight. Is Trump? Reuel Marc Gerecht is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
2025-04-15 00:00:00
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