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For Iran, It Is All about the Breakout Time

(Israel Hayom) Ariel Kahana - Over the past 18 months, the world has been watching the U.S. play a match of regional tennis: the nuclear talks with Iran. Tehran and the West have each been hitting the ball back and forth. We occasionally get news about the deal being "closer" or that the latest draft is "the final offer" and that it is "just a matter of days" or that "the window is closing." Both sides prefer this process to play itself out forever, very much like various inconclusive sporting events. Iran is hardly the most pressing issue on the U.S. foreign policy docket. As for Iran, time is on its side, because a protracted process allows it to continue with the nuclear program. Enrichment levels have already reached 60% purity levels; Tehran's coffers from trade have been filling up, in part because of the rise in oil and fuel prices and Chinese consumption; and Russia has been buying Iranian arms. The talks have allowed Iran to divert attention from what it really cares about: shortening the time it would take to reach a bomb - the breakout time - to zero. This means it would be ready to break toward a nuclear weapon once the talks collapse, and by the time the U.S. comes up with a Plan B, it will have already gotten a bomb. For Iran, the never-ending tennis match is just a ruse for the real game. From what has been reported in the media, the breakout time currently stands at several weeks. One can assume that Iran will not be foolish enough to show their hand, holding some cards close to the chest. Thus, when the talks are history, they will break toward the bomb, and the U.S. will face an excruciating dilemma it had wanted to avoid all along: accepting a nuclear-armed Iran or a bloody war with the murderous regime in Tehran.
2022-09-05 00:00:00
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