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Deterring the Undeterrable

[Washington Post] Charles Krauthammer - The era of nonproliferation is over. During the first half-century of the nuclear age, safety lay in restricting the weaponry to major powers and keeping it out of the hands of rogue states. This strategy was inevitably going to break down. The inevitable has arrived. Everyone says Iran must be prevented from going nuclear, but the "international community" is prepared to do nothing of consequence to halt nuclear proliferation. The day is quickly coming when nuclear weapons will be in the hands of one, two, many rogue states. There are four ways to deal with rogue states going nuclear: preemption, deterrence, missile defense and regime change. Total safety comes only from regime change. During the Cold War, we worried about Soviet nukes, but never French or British nukes. Weapons don't kill people; people kill people. Regime change will surely come to Iran. That is the ultimate salvation. But between now and then, how to safely navigate the interval? Deterrence plus missile defense renders a first strike so unlikely to succeed and yet so certain to bring on self-destruction that it might - just might - get us through from the day the rogues go nuclear to the day they are deposed. We have entered the post-nonproliferation age. It's time to take our heads out of the sand and deal with it.
2008-04-18 01:00:00
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