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Russia Holds the Key to Nearly Half of Syria - and With It, the Power to Keep Iranian Dominance at Bay

(The National - UAE) Hassan Hassan - After Russia intervened directly in Syria in September 2015, it was able to achieve a sequence of military and political gains for the regime. The latest of such gains might be the most important. It is clear that the Russian intervention had put an end to any serious attempt by backers of the rebels to topple the regime. Almost all the countries that once backed the opposition now depend on Russia to salvage the situation for them in Syria. Israel, Jordan, the United States, and the Gulf states had all viewed the role of Russia with hope at various times, either because it would make the regime in Damascus less dependent upon Iran or because of a perceived Iranian and Russian divergence in their approach and future vision for the country. The regime is under less military pressure than before and so it can now do with less Iranian help. Strengthening the regime would gradually enable Syrians to take control of their country rather than to continue to be under the influence of Iran, whose militias, resources, and expertise are indispensable as long as fighting continues. The U.S. and Turkey control close to 40 per cent of the country in the east and north. Israel also has a de facto veto power in any regime military operations near its borders, by virtue of an agreement between it, Russia, and the U.S. Russia, not Iran or Syria, is the country that has existing channels with those countries. In other words, the regime and Iran are currently locked out from about 40 percent of Syria - and Russia holds the key. Once the regime's military and security forces control the country, the thinking goes, outside pro-Iranian militias could be forced out. For those countries, Russia could enable such a scenario.
2018-05-30 00:00:00
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