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How to Make Sure Iran's One-Year Nuclear Breakout Time Does Not Shrink

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Olli Heinonen and Simon Henderson - Iran's current timeframe for acquiring enough high-enriched uranium to make a nuclear bomb - known as breakout time - is around two or three months, and the U.S. wants a deal that extends that period to at least one year. In Washington's view, a full year would provide enough time to detect noncompliance and take diplomatic or military action if Tehran seems poised to make an illegal dash for a nuclear weapon. Yet the use of more efficient centrifuges would shorten that time, so Iran's determination to develop more advanced machines is as much a concern as, for example, its continuing retention of large low-enriched uranium stockpiles despite a commitment in the parameters that they be converted into less contentious forms. Close attention to several technical factors is essential to the success of a nuclear deal, including the number and type of installed, operable centrifuges; Iran's inventories of enriched uranium; the dismantling of excess centrifuges; unfettered inspection access; and enhanced intelligence on and enforcement of compliance. Olli Heinonen is a senior fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center and a former deputy director-general for safeguards at the IAEA. Simon Henderson is director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute.
2015-06-18 00:00:00
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