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The Crisis of the Assad Regime

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Jeffrey White - Regular Syrian army units and irregular units alike appear to lack offensive spirit and are even showing signs of halfhearted defense. Even strong defensive positions such as Wadi Daif and Hamadiya and the Mastumah military camp in Idlib province have fallen surprisingly quickly. Regime units such as Republican Guard formations, the "Tiger Force," and the "Desert Hawks" are still capable of serious fighting, but these represent less than 10% of Syrian forces and have only a limited capability to affect the broad military situation. While the regime still enjoys advantages in terms of aircraft, heavy armor, and artillery, opposition forces are now heavily armed with weapons taken from regime forces and some key systems (e.g., antitank guided missiles) provided from external sources. Regime military capabilities are on the decline. Intervention by its allies has prevented this trend from becoming fatal, but that may be unsustainable. U.S. policymakers are given to saying the Syrian conflict has no military solution, but in fact such a "solution" is emerging. The writer is a defense fellow at The Washington Institute.
2015-05-29 00:00:00
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