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Tehran Keeps the Upper Hand in Nuclear Talks

(Jerusalem Report) Emily B. Landau - Nothing has changed with regard to Iran's basic desire to retain and advance its nuclear breakout option - namely, the ability to move quickly to a military nuclear capability before the international community can stop it. Negotiations so far show that Iran's steadfast defiance in resisting any significant concessions with regard to its nuclear program has been met time and again with concessions by the P5+1. The "creative solutions" that the P5+1 have put on the table with regard to the future of the nuclear facilities at Arak and Fordow and the configuration of centrifuges, as well as their demonstrated unwillingness to press Iran on the weaponization aspects of its program, are all symptomatic of the P5+1's negotiating weakness. In terms of the negotiations dynamic, the decision in November to extend the talks for seven months has implicitly strengthened Iran's hand, in that it has further entrenched the perception that the P5+1 are committed to diplomacy, no matter what. When it is understood by Iran that other strategies will not be embraced or even considered, this becomes a liability, weakening international leverage. Even the best-case scenario from a P5+1 perspective can no longer be regarded as a good deal. Even if an agreement is secured, the provisions are unlikely to afford the international community sufficient time to stop Iran from achieving breakout. The writer heads the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
2015-01-09 00:00:00
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