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The Geopolitics of Israel's Offshore Gas Reserves

(Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs) David Wurmser - The flow of natural gas from Israel's Tamar field in the Mediterranean was inaugurated on March 30, 2013, ushering in a new era in Israel's energy sector. The Tamar field alone represents two decades of consumption, with an estimated 9.7 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas. Israel will not only become independent in being able to supply its own energy needs, but it is likely to become an energy exporter in the future. Tamar was only the beginning. The monstrous gas field appropriately called Leviathan is now estimated to contain 18 TCF and could begin supplying gas in 2016. The amount of gas discovered offshore now dwarfs any feasible, projected Israeli demand for at least half a century. The Israeli gas discoveries are only part of new gas fields in what is called the Levant Basin, which includes the maritime areas of Israel, Cyprus, Lebanon, and even parts of Syria's waters. The Levant Basin could hold 125 TCF of natural gas - about one-third of Russia's gas reserves. The most likely short-term destination for Israel's natural gas is Jordan. Connecting Israel's emerging gas grid to Jordan is a relatively inexpensive and simple endeavor. Given its geographic proximity, Europe would seem to be the natural export market for Israeli gas. Yet Asia may emerge as Israel's preferred export destination. The Australian firm, Woodside, which acquired about a third of the rights to the Leviathan field, is oriented toward marketing gas in Asia, and envisions building a liquefaction plant to service that trade. Israeli officials view a cross-Israel natural gas pipeline connecting the Mediterranean and Red Seas as an alternative to the Suez Canal. But an export structure operating directly from Eilat to markets in Asia would face a rising strategic problem: Iran's increasing naval presence in the Red Sea. This will require Israel to establish and expand a Red Sea fleet as well as a significant expansion in the size and capability of its Mediterranean fleet. The writer served as a consultant to Noble Energy. Earlier, he served as senior advisor on Proliferation and the Middle East to former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, as senior advisor to John R. Bolton at the State Department, and as a research fellow on the Middle East at the American Enterprise Institute.
2013-04-05 00:00:00
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