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Are Iran Sanctions Working?

(Council on Foreign Relations) Elliott Abrams - It's a commonplace to say that sanctions against Iran are tighter than ever and are working. The problem is that sanctions appear to be having no impact on Iran's nuclear weapons program, which is after all their purpose. The damage to Iran's economy is visible, foreign exchange reserves are down from $100 billion to $75 billion, but that is not economic collapse. A foreign ambassador stationed in Iran recently told me that the depressed value of the currency means that a middle class family can no longer afford an annual vacation in Turkey and now has to vacation inside Iran. But that's hardly the kind of thing that produces rioting and it isn't going to produce a change in the Supreme Leader's nuclear policy. Reuters' Middle East economics editor recently wrote that sanctions "are not close to having the 'crippling' effect envisaged by Washington. The Iranian government has found ways to soften the impact." So sanctions are hurting Iran's economy, and are hurting many Iranians - though the richest can take care of themselves, and the poorest are protected by the government with subsidies for food. But there is no crisis, and it seems to be wishful thinking that the ayatollahs will abandon their nuclear program because the economic pain is too great. The writer is a Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at CFR.
2013-02-22 00:00:00
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