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Israel Confronts a Dramatic Decision on Iran

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Zaki Shalom - In the wake of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, a sense may develop in public opinion, both in Israel and abroad, that the operation was a failure. It can be assumed that the Iranian regime and others who support it will make every effort to establish such an awareness On the other hand, a sense that the attack was successful would have tremendous importance in establishing deterrence in Israel-Iran relations and Israel's relations with other hostile states. This is likely to have positive consequences for Israel's relationship with the U.S. administration and vis-a-vis the Palestinian Authority, while a sense of limited success, or a lack of success, is likely to have negative consequences. At the same time, a partial strike against Iranian nuclear facilities that leads to a delay in its nuclear program, even if it is only for a year or two, is liable to have far-reaching consequences. The Iranian leadership must ask itself whether it is worthwhile for Iran to pay the heavy price of the nuclear project, and ultimately to suffer physical destruction of at least some of its nuclear facilities, with the knowledge that in another year or two years, a further attack is possible. Moreover, an Israeli attack on Iran, even if it ends with partial destruction of the nuclear facilities, will perhaps bring about the collapse of the psychological barrier that exists today in regard to an attack on Iran. If it becomes clear to the entire world that Iran's ability to respond is very limited, then the probability of an attack by Israel or the U.S. in the future will grow. The writer is a senior research fellow at INSS.
2012-09-06 00:00:00
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