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The Dangers of Accepting Iran as a Nuclear Threshold State

(Israel Hayom) Dore Gold - Waiting to the very last minute to act against Iran until it actually crosses the nuclear threshold carries a steep diplomatic price for the U.S. Over time, many states, especially in the Persian Gulf, will conclude that the U.S. will never take any action against Iran, even though the Iranian threat is growing. As the UAE ambassador to Washington, Yusuf al-Otaiba, has warned: "There are many countries in the region who, if they lack the assurance the U.S. is willing to confront Iran, will start running for cover towards Iran." He was essentially saying that as time goes on, if there are growing doubts about American resolve to destroy the Iranian nuclear program, and Tehran succeeds in "decoupling" the Arab states from Washington, then the U.S. alliance structure in the Arabian Peninsula might eventually collapse. Students of international politics may recall the distinction drawn by U.S. academics, like Kenneth Waltz, between states that seek to unite and "balance" a common threat by creating an alliance, and states that give up and get on the "bandwagon" of their adversaries. Accepting Iran with a threshold nuclear capacity will eventually result in Arab states getting on the Iranian bandwagon. The writer is president of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.
2012-08-31 00:00:00
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