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Is an Alawite State Viable?

(New York Times) Frank Jacobs - In an interview with Le Figaro, Fabrice Balanche, director of the research group on the Mediterranean and the Middle East at the University of Lyons II, said that the Assad regime in Syria has a worst-case plan, years in the making: "The Alawite minority can defend a redoubt along the coast, where it is in the majority." Could a modern Alawite state be viable? According to Balanche: the farming is good, there's an airport at Latakia, a naval base at Tartus and an oil terminal at Baniyas. "Assad could continue to count on support from Iran, and the Russian Navy would retain its docking rights at Tartus." Some observers think the question is moot. Collapsing governments tend to have neither the time nor the presence of mind to entrench themselves according to plan.
2012-07-25 00:00:00
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