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Rethinking Our Approach to Iran's Search for the Bomb

(Center for Strategic and International Studies) Anthony H. Cordesman - Iran has pursued every major area of nuclear weapons development, has carried out programs that have already given it every component of a weapon except fissile material, and there is strong evidence that it has carried out programs to integrate a nuclear warhead on to its missiles. Even if its current enrichment facilities and stocks of highly enriched uranium are fully secured, Iran can pursue nuclear weapons development through a range of compartmented and easily concealable programs even if it suspends enrichment activity. Simply controlling Iran's fuel cycle will not stop Iran from improving every other aspect of its nuclear breakout capabilities anymore than attacking its major current enrichment activities will. Neither arms control and inspections that focus on actual enrichment, nor bombing key enrichment facilities, can now stop Iran from moving forward in many important areas. Iran has gotten too far, and its technology base is too large. No one should disregard the political, religious, and ideological statements of Iran's leaders; ignore the extent to which it exploits hostility to Israel to win Arab support or tolerance, and the prestige impact of becoming a nuclear power. No assessment of Iran's military behavior should ignore the fact that nuclear weapons represent a key part of its overall strategic and military goals and force posture.
2012-05-14 00:00:00
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