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Homs, Anvil of Syria

(NOW Lebanon) Michael Young - The regime of President Bashar al-Assad is working on two fronts simultaneously: endeavoring to re-impose its writ nationwide, while also contemplating a prospective communal fallback to the Alawite heartland in the coastal areas and mountains of northwestern Syria if it sensed that it was losing power in Damascus. Today, that option is very much alive, and according to several independent sources it is being discussed freely within the Alawite community. If the Alawites hope to make safe an eventual Alawite mini-state, they cannot allow Homs to be controlled by their foes. That explains what we are seeing today, as the Syrian army prepares to recapture Homs from the opposition. The Russians resupplied Assad with weapons several weeks ago, and when they vetoed a Security Council resolution that would have endorsed an Arab plan for his departure, he ordered the offensive on Homs. If the Alawites seek true security, they must guarantee two things: that there is continuity between their geographic areas and majority-Shia districts in Lebanon's northern Bekaa Valley; and that they can isolate Sunnis in Syria's northwestern coastal areas from their brethren elsewhere in the country. Controlling Homs allows both.
2012-02-13 00:00:00
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