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The Coming Civil War

(Ha'aretz) Arnon Regular - The question of who will obtain the keys to the Gaza settlements that will be evacuated has heightened tensions. Each of the more than 10 security branches in Gaza is involved in power struggles, in addition to dozens of armed groups in Fatah. According to a senior Fatah official, the disintegration of the PA is giving rise to two main camps in Gaza. Former security chief Mohammed Dahlan's strength is based on the support of the Preventative Security unit headed by Rashid Abu Shabaq (the most organized and advanced of the security units) and on the backing of some armed groups in Fatah. This camp has held displays of force in the past few months, sending a clear message to Arafat and Qurei that they have no hope of operating in Gaza without Dahlan's agreement. Opposing Dahlan in Gaza are all the forces that operate on behalf of Arafat, including the police, led by Razi Jibali; National Security, under the command of Abd el-Raziq Majaida; the "army" and military intelligence in the Gaza Strip, headed by Moussa Arafat; and some of the armed groups of Fatah. The struggle for control of Gaza and, indirectly, for the succession to Arafat, is at its height. The matter will be decided in the months ahead, either by confrontation or by agreement and a division of powers between Dahlan and Arafat. Political assassinations will be part of this game.
2004-03-08 00:00:00
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