Daily Alert Archives

A Third Intifada? Not Necessarily

Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel - A third intifada in September 2011, along the lines of September 2000, is not necessarily a foregone conclusion. Violence may erupt, but there are also restraining factors at work. First and foremost is the risk for West Bank residents of losing everything achieved under Abbas and Fayyad. The Nakba Day events made it clear that the IDF excels at preparing for scenarios for which it has advance warning. After weeks of preparation and coordination with the Palestinian security forces, the demonstrations did not spill over into uncontrolled conflicts and there were relatively few casualties. Also contributing was the PA's desire to prove it controls the West Bank. The situation in the north was entirely different. A massive infiltration attempt along the Lebanese border was greeted forcefully by the Lebanese Army, and most of the deaths there were due to Lebanese fire. The small IDF reserve force in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights was surprised by the mass protest, held with the clear encouragement of President Assad's regime, which allowed hundreds of buses to set out from Damascus. The fact that construction in the Druze town has been creeping into the area adjacent to the border, in contravention of building regulations, meant the demonstrators had only a quick dash until they were in the center of the village. Golan regional brigade commander Col. Eshkol Shukrun showed optimal restraint, seeing that the infiltrators were mostly unarmed teens and men, and limited their live fire.
2011-05-20 00:00:00
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