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The Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamic Current, and Prospects for Post-Mubarak Egypt: An Early Assessment

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Robert Satloff - Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff, who just returned from a fact-finding mission to Egypt, told the House Intelligence Committee on April 13: One cannot but be moved by the courage, enthusiasm and audacity of the people - largely young people - who toppled the Mubarak regime. I believe their commitment and determination will eventually be vindicated in the development of a more hopeful, more open, forward-looking Egypt. In other words, the long-term looks positive. However, for many reasons, the near term looks problematic. Liberal activists were responsible for the takeoff of the revolution but, so far, Islamists and the military have been defining the landing. From the moment the Islamists committed themselves to the fight, their goal has been to capture, exploit and inherit the revolution. Deep concern about the Muslim Brotherhood's potential emergence as a major player and even power-broker is warranted. The Brotherhood is not, as some suggest, simply an Egyptian version of the March of Dimes - that is, a social welfare organization whose goals are fundamentally humanitarian. On the contrary, the Brotherhood is a profoundly political organization that seeks to reorder Egyptian (and broader Muslim) society in an Islamist fashion. The organization will exploit whatever opportunities it is offered; it has renounced its most ambitious goals and the violent means to achieve them only as a result of regime compulsion, not by free choice. Should the Brotherhood achieve political power, it will almost certainly use that power to transform Egypt into a very different place. However, it would be a mistake for the U.S. to operate under the assumption that the Brotherhood's ascension to power is inevitable. Moreover, recent actions by the Supreme Military Council suggest that the Egyptian military does not intend to change an electoral system that effectively prevents the Brotherhood from achieving political power through the ballot box.
2011-04-15 00:00:00
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