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Deterring Teheran

(Jerusalem Post) Daniel Pipes - * As the Iranian regime barrels forward, openly calling for the destruction of Israel and overtly breaking the nuclear non-proliferation rules, two distinctly undesirable prospects confront the West. The first is to acquiesce to Teheran and hope for the best. The second consists of the U.S. destroying key Iranian installations. But is there a third option to dissuade the Iranian regime from developing and militarizing its atomic capabilities? * Iran is an oligarchy with multiple power centers and with debate on many issues. The political leadership itself is divided, with important elements dubious about the wisdom of proceeding with nukes, fearful of international isolation, not to speak of air strikes. A campaign by Iranians to avoid confrontation could well prevail. Going nuclear remains a voluntary decision, one Teheran can refrain from making. Arguably, Iranian security would benefit by staying non-nuclear. * Deterring Teheran requires sustained, consistent external pressure on the Iranian body politic. That implies, ironically, that those most adverse to U.S. air strikes must (1) stand tight with Washington and (2) convince Iranians of the terrible repercussions for them of defying the international consensus.
2006-05-10 00:00:00
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