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Playing Poker in Teheran

(Jerusalem Post) Gerald M. Steinberg - Iranian President Ahmadinejad's boast that his country has joined the nuclear club appears to be an admission of weakness, rather than a show of strength. The operation of a few centrifuges to obtain a low level of enrichment for small amounts of uranium is far from having an indigenous fuel cycle that can be used to produce fissile material in any useful amounts. With so much more to do to reach their goal, why are the leaders of the radical regime in Teheran engaging in such dramatics now? The reasons appear to be both fear of external intervention capable of stopping their efforts and the need to claim a victory to bolster low levels of domestic political support. Iran might consider the efforts of Saddam Hussein, who greatly exaggerated his military capabilities in the years prior to the 2003 war, and boasted about chemical and biological weapons capabilities. His strategy backfired - his threats did not prevent the attack, but rather hastened it.
2006-04-14 00:00:00
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