Daily Alert Archives

Understanding the Outcome of Palestinian Elections

(AMIN) Khalil Shikaki - No public opinion surveys expected Hamas to win a majority of the seats in the Palestinian Legislative Council. While Hamas only received 45% of the popular vote, the nature of the electoral system magnified the existing fragmentation of Hamas' opposition. The unfulfilled expectations that followed the election of Mahmoud Abbas last year increased support for Hamas by 40% in a single year. According to exit polls, 3/4 of all Palestinians, including more than 60% of Hamas supporters, are willing to support reconciliation between Palestinians and Israelis based on a two-state solution, but the peace process was the least important issue for the voters. The two most important issues were corruption and the inability of the PA to enforce law and order. The third and fourth priorities were economic prosperity and the peace process. Only 15% viewed the peace process as a top priority. Israel's unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip was perceived by more than 80% of Palestinians as a victory for armed resistance. This was a tactical victory for Hamas, not a strategic one; voters want political solutions, not political Islam. Survey research during the last decade demonstrates strong public support for liberal democracy among Palestinians. Indeed, most view Israel's democracy more positively than any other in the world, followed by America's. The writer is director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah.
2006-02-03 00:00:00
Full Article