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(Wall Street Journal) Abbas Milani - Falling oil prices are now forcing the regime to reduce the almost $100 billion of subsidies it pays to keep quiet a discontent population. The reserves it accumulated when oil prices were $150 per barrel have long been squandered by Ahmadinejad on harebrained schemes like carelessly making loans to start businesses that ended up fueling a real estate bubble, rather than creating jobs. This inevitable reduction of subsidies is sure to further reduce the standards of living for the poor and middle classes. A politically discontented population forced to experience an unexpected economic downturn was a key element of the recipe that overthrew the Shah in 1979. The same sudden change in the country's economic fortune that brought the clerics to power 30 years ago is now coming back to haunt them. The writer is director of Iranian Studies at Stanford University where he is also a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. 2010-01-01 07:24:00Full Article
The Tipping Point in Iran
(Wall Street Journal) Abbas Milani - Falling oil prices are now forcing the regime to reduce the almost $100 billion of subsidies it pays to keep quiet a discontent population. The reserves it accumulated when oil prices were $150 per barrel have long been squandered by Ahmadinejad on harebrained schemes like carelessly making loans to start businesses that ended up fueling a real estate bubble, rather than creating jobs. This inevitable reduction of subsidies is sure to further reduce the standards of living for the poor and middle classes. A politically discontented population forced to experience an unexpected economic downturn was a key element of the recipe that overthrew the Shah in 1979. The same sudden change in the country's economic fortune that brought the clerics to power 30 years ago is now coming back to haunt them. The writer is director of Iranian Studies at Stanford University where he is also a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. 2010-01-01 07:24:00Full Article
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