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Limited Options: Deterring Iran

[Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists] Lowell H. Schwartz - The question today is no longer whether the U.S. can still prevent the emergence of nuclear-armed regional adversaries, but instead, how to prevent them from being empowered by their nuclear weapons. Deterrence of nuclear use through the threat of retaliation - a mainstay of Cold War military strategy - is highly problematic with nuclear-armed regional adversaries. The reason is simple: These leaders may believe their sole chance of surviving is brandishing or using nuclear weapons. Indeed, they might choose to abstain from nuclear use only if they felt that course would enable them and their regimes to survive intact. U.S. decision-makers in regional crises should seek to devise policy options that avoid putting the enemy leadership in a position where nuclear use seems to them to be the least bad option available. The writer is a political scientist at the RAND Corporation.
2009-09-08 08:00:00
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