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Egypt's Next Strongman

[Foreign Policy] Issandr Amrani - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's son Gamal and Omar Suleiman, the head of Egypt's General Intelligence Service, have both been touted for most of the past decade as a potential heir to Mubarak. Many well-informed Egyptians think the next president will come from the military - and that Suleiman is the most likely candidate. Suleiman attended the Soviet Union's Frunze Military Academy in the 1960s - as Mubarak did a few years earlier - and took part in the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars. When Cairo switched its strategic alliance from Moscow to Washington, he received training at the Special Warfare School at Fort Bragg, N.C., in the 1980s. Suleiman continues to have privileged contacts with U.S. intelligence and military officials, with whom he has now been dealing for at least a quarter-century. Suleiman holds both a military rank (lieutenant general) and a civilian office (he is a cabinet minister). However amendments made in 2005 and 2007 to the Egyptian Constitution's provisions for presidential elections might have rendered Suleiman's candidacy moot. Active-duty military officers are not allowed membership in political parties, meaning Suleiman would have to retire before running. Then, candidates must be members of their party's highest internal body for at least one year before the election, a significant obstacle for Suleiman. Neither Gamal Mubarak nor Omar Suleiman present a clear departure from the present state of affairs. The prevalence of the Gamal vs. Omar debate, more than anything, highlights the low expectations ordinary Egyptians have for a democratic succession to Hosni Mubarak's 28-year reign.
2009-08-19 06:00:00
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