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The Foresight Saga

[Ha'aretz] Ze'ev Schiff - Sometimes a country has to take a slap in the face in order to wake up to the changed reality around it. That's what happened to Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, in which 2,600 were killed, and in the Al-Aqsa Intifada, which claimed more than 1,000 victims. Now Israel has gotten a slap during the war with Hizballah. It is unfortunate that each time, the searing of Israel's consciousness involves losses, destruction, and suffering. In the Arab states, too, there are many who think that the war has created a new reality. In their perception, the Israel Defense Forces is having a hard time subduing Hizballah. In Syria they are wondering whether the time hasn't come to liberate the Golan Heights by force. Fortunately for Israel, this war erupted before Iran acquired the ability to threaten the use of nuclear weapons. Tehran understands that part of the infrastructure it created for Hizballah will be destroyed in the war, so it is important for it that the border crossings into Lebanon remain open, to enable Hizballah to be rearmed. The international force that is to be deployed in southern Lebanon will be meaningless if it does not ensure that Iran and Syria are prevented from getting weapons and rockets to Hizballah. Hizballah built a system of underground tunnels in southern Lebanon which recalls what the Vietcong did in Vietnam. Its fighters hide in the tunnels and occasionally surface to attack Israeli troops and to fire rockets. What exists in southern Lebanon was planned by Iranian advisors led by the chief of the Al-Quds (Jerusalem) force in the Revolutionary Guards, Qassam Sulaymani. Vanquishing large terrorist organizations militarily is not like vanquishing regular armies. Former chief of staff Moshe Ya'alon believes that a guerrilla organization can be defeated in a prolonged war of attrition. It is not true that guerrillas have always won. In some cases the "price" that was exacted from them was too great to enable them to persist with their threat. The present war will undoubtedly serve to deter Nasrallah in the future. After the American failure against the Scud missiles in 1991, a few Arab states and Iran stepped up the development of surface-to-surface missiles. This process will be even further accelerated in the wake of Hizballah's rocket attack on Israel. The Palestinians, too, will undoubtedly intensify the development of Kassam rockets and the smuggling of Katyusha rockets into the territories. Israel must prevent by force the continuation of this "festival of rockets" against its population.
2006-08-11 01:00:00
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