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Prepared for the
Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
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To contact the Presidents Conference: [email protected] In-Depth Issue:
Report: Foreign Submarine Entered Israeli Waters (Jerusalem Post)
Al-Aksa: New "Yasser 1" Rocket Can Reach Ashkelon - Margot Dudkevitch (Jerusalem Post)
Suha Heeds Warnings to Avoid Ramallah - Khaled Abu Toameh (Jerusalem Post)
Inflammatory Legends - Danny Rubinstein (Ha'aretz)
Arafat's Brother Dies in Cairo (Albawaba-Jordan)
Report: Al-Qaeda to Attack U.S. with Weapons of Mass Destruction - Adam Zagorin (TIME)
General Assembly Opens in Cleveland - Nathan Guttman (Ha'aretz)
Israeli Group Trains South African Leaders
(IsraAID, 13Nov04)
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News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
Palestinian militants burst into a mourning tent set up in Gaza for Arafat on Sunday and fired shots in protest at the presence of moderate successor Mahmoud Abbas, who was unhurt in a clash in which two security men were killed. Fatah gunmen shouting "No to Abu Mazen" walked by Abbas as he stood outside the tent and began firing shots into the air. Chaos ensued as gunmen and bodyguards began shooting at each other. (Reuters/ABC News) See also Dozens of Fatah Gunmen Open Fire on Abu Mazen - Arnon Regular and Jack Khoury The group subsequently published a leaflet saying, "We warn the pretenders to the legacy of Yasser Arafat, no matter how senior they are, not to think of stopping the intifada and betraying Yasser Arafat's legacy." Abbas and Dahlan both denied it was an assassination attempt. Al Jazeera TV interrupted regular broadcasting to transmit pictures with large captions describing the incident as an assassination attempt. (Ha'aretz) President Bush set a goal Friday of ensuring the creation of a peaceful, democratic Palestinian state alongside Israel before he leaves office in 2009. With British Prime Minister Tony Blair at his side, Bush pledged to put the resources of the U.S. and the prestige of his presidency behind the quest. Bush did not endorse any of the specific measures that Blair proposed - including an international peace conference and the designation of a U.S. envoy to the Middle East. Blair told ABC's "Nightline" that a key part of the plan is to make sure that international donations to the PA are used "for the good of the Palestinian people" and not diverted to secret bank accounts. (Washington Post) See also Israel Pleased with Bush's Remarks - Aluf Benn Senior Israeli government sources were pleased with Bush's remarks, saying they upheld the understandings between Washington and Jerusalem and underscored the disengagement plan's diplomatic achievement - preventing an imposed settlement. (Ha'aretz) See also Bush and the Case for Democracy - Editorial Bush recently had a private meeting with Natan Sharansky, once a leading Soviet dissident and now a minister in Israel's government. Sharansky has written a powerful book, The Case for Democracy, in which he argues that the democratization of the former Soviet bloc establishes the model for the Middle East. Bush had been reading the book and it showed. In his press conference with Blair, many of his answers could have been lifted directly from its pages. (Times-UK) A senior administration official explained: "Reform means that some people who have had power are going to lose some of it....Some people who have made a lot of money are going to find their opportunities to make money corruptly have disappeared. Some people who have had guns are going to have to turn in their guns." (Washington Times) See also Bush-Blair Joint Statement (White House); Bush, Blair Press Conference (White House) American forces overran the last center of rebel resistance in Falluja on Sunday after a weeklong invasion that smashed what they called the principal base for the Iraqi insurgency. American commanders said 38 American servicemembers had been killed and 275 wounded in Falluja, and estimated that 1,200 to 1,600 insurgents had been killed. (New York Times) There was a recognition by military commanders that many leaders of the fighters in the city had fled and planned to fight another day. (Telegraph-UK) Iran agreed Sunday in a meeting in Tehran with French, German, and British ambassadors to immediately suspend its nuclear programs in exchange for European guarantees that it will not face the prospect of UN Security Council sanctions as long as their agreement holds. The European deal will require months, and possibly years, of further negotiations before Iran agrees to permanently end its nuclear work and falls far short of the strategic decision the Bush administration said Tehran needs to make to convince the world it is not a danger. Washington's push for Security Council action is unlikely to succeed as long as Iran and the Europeans continue to work together. (Washington Post) News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
Israel is formulating a new diplomatic policy for the post-Arafat era which may include a coordinated, rather than unilateral, disengagement from the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank. Speaking to the General Assembly of North American Jewish communities in Cleveland, Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom said that if the new Palestinian leadership fights against terrorism, Israel will agree to conduct negotiations over coordinated implementation of the disengagement plan. Shalom warned that Israel would be strict in judging whether the PA had taken actual steps against terrorism. "The possibility of change on the Palestinian side is not enough. We need to see a change on the ground." Israel's National Security Council is preparing a program to turn the pullout plan into a process that would be coordinated with the newly emerging Palestinian leadership. (Ha'aretz) See also Address by Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom to the 2004 United Jewish Communities General Assembly (Foreign Ministry) IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Moshe Ya'alon told the cabinet Sunday that Palestinian terror organizations are likely to step up attacks against Israel in an effort to keep a moderate Palestinian leadership from establishing itself. He attributed a slight decrease in the number of attacks recently to Arafat's death and the Id al-Fitr holiday. (Jerusalem Post) See also Terror Groups Vow to Escalate the "Struggle" - Margot Dudkevitch and Khaled Abu Toameh Fatah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other groups issued separate leaflets calling on the Palestinians to escalate the "struggle" against Israel in the post-Arafat era. "We must continue the fight in order to fulfill President Arafat's dream," read one of the leaflets. Calls for continuing the intifada were heard in rallies across the West Bank and Gaza Strip, as hundreds of Palestinians took to the streets, mourning their leader and torching tires. Top Fatah operative Hussein al-Sheikh confirmed that the Palestinians were headed toward an escalation. "We will continue to believe the gun is the way to get rid of the occupation," he said. "This is Abu Amar's promise and this is his will and we will continue to be true to them." (Jerusalem Post) Fatah officials believe Marwan Barghouti, a West Bank leader currently serving life imprisonment in Israel for ordering and funding terror killings, will refrain from entering the race to succeed Arafat. Sources in Fatah said over the weekend that Barghouti would not challenge the present veteran PA leadership. Abbas is almost certain to win the vote; Hamas is unlikely to field a candidate, since the chairman's position was created by the Oslo Accords, which Hamas does not recognize. Previously scheduled municipal elections will take place on December 20, but PA sources said parliamentary elections will be held only once Fatah has rehabilitated itself and feels ready to compete against opposition groups such as Hamas. (Ha'aretz) The government will soon hold a comprehensive debate on the participation of eastern Jerusalem's Arab residents in the upcoming PA elections, Prime Minister Sharon told the cabinet Sunday. "I don't know whether their voting can even be prevented after they already voted in the previous elections in 1996," Sharon noted, when Arab Jerusalemites voted via mail-in ballots. (Ha'aretz) The theory prevalent among Palestinians is that the incident at the mourner's tent in Gaza was a sign that broad circles in the West Bank and Gaza refuse to accept Abu Mazen as Arafat's heir. Opposition to Abu Mazen and Dahlan is rife among young Fatah members, known as the Tanzim, as well as in the military wing of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades (now named for Arafat). The current impression in the territories is that Arafat's adversaries are now succeeding him, prompting angry responses. Abu Mazen is held as being prone to capitulation and compromise because he was the only senior Palestinian leader to publicly condemn "the intifada's militarism." (Ha'aretz) Discussing the shooting attack against Mahmoud Abbas in Gaza, a senior Israeli government official said Sunday, "The real problem is the renegade groups, the extremists, all vying for power, who want a piece of the action and are being directed by Hizballah and Iran....Abu Mazen [Abbas] is going to have to take them on....The copout would be if he decides to negotiate and reach an agreement with these groups. If he succumbs to them, if he starts to negotiate with them, then he is in their hands and will be unable to change anything....Any future Palestinian leader will be unable to hide from them, and sooner or later will have to prove that he has the muscle to impose law and order." (Jerusalem Post) Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis (Best of U.S., UK, and Israel):
If Arafat was such a great leader, how is it that he left his people so destitute, desperate, wounded and bereft that only his passing gives them a hope for a fulfillment of their deepest aspirations? He signed interim deals to get a foothold in Palestine, but always with the objective of continuing the fight from a better strategic position, never to conclude a lasting compromise or real peace with Israel. Arafat founded Fatah in 1959 - eight years before Israel acquired the territories. His objective then, and until the day he died, was a Palestinian state built on the ruins of an eradicated Israel. Arafat didn't just reject any settlement that would leave Israel intact, thereby setting a precedent that any successor dare not violate. He also raised a new generation to ensure that rejection. (Washington Post) You will pardon me if I don't join in the insipid chorus about how Arafat's great achievement was the way he represented the "aspirations" for statehood of the Palestinian people and, through terrorism and resistance, put the Palestinian cause on the world map. If all you do is express the aspirations, but never produce the reality, then history will judge you very harshly. And any honest history of Yasser Arafat will judge him on his voids, not his visions. (New York Times) See also Arafat Without Tears - Michael Oren (Washington Post) Observations:
A Democratic Palestine - Robert Satloff (Weekly Standard)
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