|
In-Depth Issues:
Israeli Ambassador Sounds Red Alert Siren at UN - Itamar Eichner ( Ynet News)
Israeli Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon activated a Red Alert rocket warning siren during a UN Security Council session on Tuesday and set a 15-second timer to illustrate the reality faced by Israeli civilians under missile fire.
"This is the time some civilians in Israel have to reach a protected space," Danon said.
"Fifteen seconds to decide which child to take first, whether to go back for the others, and whether you can help an elderly parent. Sometimes, those 15 seconds run out before you reach safety."
"Every time we were asked to stop and give diplomacy a chance, terrorism used the time to rearm."
"Israel will not return to solutions that guarantee the next war. This time we will remove the threat at its root."
Israel Keeps Targeting Iran's Ballistic Missiles - Elisha Ben Kimon ( Ynet News)
The IDF said Tuesday that it is continuing to strike Iran's ballistic missile array, even as Iranian missiles continued to cause casualties and damage in Israel.
In recent days, dozens of commanders and soldiers in Iran's missile fire array have been killed, security officials said, while the Israel Air Force has kept up round-the-clock sorties targeting missile storage sites and launch fields.
Airstrikes are sealing underground storage tunnels, making it difficult to access the missiles.
In recent days, Iranian forces have brought engineering equipment to the sites to reopen access, but those vehicles were also targeted by Israeli airstrikes.
At the same time, the air force has continued striking critical missile component production facilities, including for liquid fuel and warheads, to further weaken Iran's missile manufacturing capacity.
The War Is Going Better than You Think - Bret Stephens ( New York Times)
In March 2012, the price of Brent crude closed at $123 a barrel - $175 a barrel in today's dollars.
As of Tuesday, despite Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its attacks on its neighbors' energy facilities, the price is hovering around $100.
That ought to provide some perspective on the panic over the price of oil.
During the 1991 Operation Desert Storm against Iraq's Saddam Hussein, a campaign widely considered a brilliant military success, the U.S.-led coalition lost 75 aircraft, 42 of them in combat.
In the conflict with Iran, four manned aircraft have been destroyed, three to friendly fire and one in an accident. Not a single manned plane has yet been lost over Iran.
In 1991, Iraq fired 39 missiles toward Israel. Hardly any were intercepted despite the deployment of Patriot batteries there. In this war, Israel is registering an interception rate of 92% against more than 400 missiles.
One of the worst mistakes of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan was the attempt by the U.S. to remake societies in both countries.
In this war, we hope the Iranian people use the opportunity of their leadership's weakness to seize their own destiny. But we won't do it for them.
If past generations could see how well this war has gone compared with the ones they were compelled to fight at a frightening cost, they would marvel at their posterity's comparative good fortune.
Why the Iran War Should Not Cause Higher Gas Prices in the U.S. - Frank N. Newman ( Newsweek)
America does not depend on oil sent through the Strait of Hormuz and its closure does not provide any good reason for U.S. consumers to face big increases in gas prices.
The U.S. produces more oil than it needs and is a net exporter of oil. Problems in the Strait need not change the amount of oil produced in the U.S., nor the cost of pumping oil in the U.S., nor the amount of gasoline produced and used in the U.S.
When prices recently increased for oil internationally, U.S. oil companies also raised prices stateside, but this makes no sense.
The net result is that U.S. consumers pay more for gasoline, while American oil companies'
production costs are the same, providing a huge profit windfall.
There are differences in types of oil in the U.S., but that does not alter the logic. Most of the oil produced in the U.S. is "light." But some U.S. refineries use "heavy" oil.
That means that the U.S. trades about 30% percent of its light oil for heavy oil, predominantly from Canada and Mexico.
Under a long-term understanding between America and its oil companies, the companies are given many privileges, including on public lands, and they are supposed to provide reliable production for America's needs, at fair and reasonably stable prices.
There is no legitimate basis for U.S. oil and gasoline companies to set prices in America any higher than they were last month.
Once gas prices decline in the U.S., perhaps the IRGC will realize that keeping the Strait closed would harm China, India and Japan, not America - and they might reopen the Strait.
The writer is a former Deputy Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton.
|
|
News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia:
- Iran Sets High Bar in Ceasefire Talks - Summer Said
Iranian representatives are making demands before entering negotiations for a ceasefire deal with the U.S. They want the closure of all American bases in the Gulf and reparations for attacks on Iran.
In addition, they want a new order for the Strait of Hormuz that would allow Iran to collect fees from ships that transit the waterway; guarantees that the war wouldn't restart and an end to Israel's strikes on Hizbullah;
lifting all sanctions on Iran; and permitting Iran to keep its missile program with no negotiations to limit it.
A U.S. official called the demands ridiculous and unrealistic, and said such posturing will make reaching a deal with Tehran harder. (Wall Street Journal)
See also Iran's Military Spokesperson to U.S.: "Don't Dress Up Your Defeat as an Agreement"
Lt.-Col. Ebrahim Zolfaghari, a spokesperson for the Iranian military's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, addressed the U.S. on Thursday: "Don't dress up your defeat as an agreement....Our first and last word has been the same from day one, and it will stay that way: Someone like us will never come to terms with someone like you. Not now, not ever." (AP-Al Arabiya)
See also Iran Refuses Talks with Trump Negotiators Witkoff and Kushner - Connor Stringer
Gulf sources told the Telegraph that the Iranians would not sit down with President Trump's top envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, because of the military strikes that hit Tehran hours after they held talks in February. Vice President JD Vance is preferred, a Gulf source said. "They don't want to work with Jared and Witkoff." (Telegraph-UK)
- Iran Arrests over 1,000 Individuals Connected to "Enemy" Networks
Iranian media have reported more than 1,000 arrests over the course of the month, pertaining "to individuals accused of filming sensitive locations, sharing anti-government content online, or "cooperating with the enemy."
State media reported on Tuesday that Iranian police arrested 466 people accused of online activities aimed at undermining national security, in one of the biggest security sweeps since the star of the war. Police said the arrests followed intelligence and technical monitoring in recent days, alleging the individuals were connected to "enemy" networks seeking to create internal instability.
(Reuters)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast:
- Israeli Officials Doubt Iran Will Accept U.S. Ceasefire Terms - Itamar Eichner
Israeli officials have expressed deep skepticism over the chances that U.S.-Iran negotiations will lead to an agreement to end the war. At the same time, officials said they are not ruling out a diplomatic breakthrough, noting President Trump's unpredictable approach to negotiations. Still, officials said they do not expect Washington to back down on core issues, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program.
Israeli officials said that if Iran were to accept the U.S. terms, Israel would welcome such an agreement, even if it does not lead to the collapse of Iran's leadership. Israel is not linking the war with Iran to ongoing fighting with Hizbullah in Lebanon, officials said, and military operations there are expected to continue regardless of any potential agreement. (Ynet News)
- Israeli Woman Killed in Hizbullah Rocket Strike - Yair Kraus
Nuriel Dubin, 27, was killed Tuesday evening in a Hizbullah rocket strike at Mahanaim Junction in the Upper Galilee, as the terrorist group fired a barrage of 30 rockets toward the area. She was due to be married in six months.
(Ynet News)
See also Iranian Cluster Bomb Wounds Nine People in Bnei Brak - Emanuel Fabian
An Iranian cluster bomb wounded nine people in Bnei Brak in central Israel on Tuesday.
(Times of Israel)
- IDF Expands Raids in Southern Lebanon - Elisha Ben Kimon
Hizbullah continued nonstop rocket barrages and drone launches toward northern Israel on Tuesday. At the same time, the IDF is continuing targeted raids in southern Lebanon, aiming to push Hizbullah operatives farther from the border and limit their ability to carry out attacks.
Hizbullah operatives have largely withdrawn from frontline positions and are now entrenched in deeper defensive zones inside Lebanon. Meanwhile, the Israel Air Force continued strikes on Hizbullah-linked gas stations operated by the Al-Amana company, which generate significant revenue to fund Hizbullah activities.
(Ynet News)
See also Israel Will Hold Security Zone in South Lebanon until Hizbullah Threat Removed - Emanuel Fabian
Defense Minister Israel Katz said Tuesday that Israel will control a security zone in southern Lebanon, up to the Litani River, until the threat of Hizbullah is removed. "The IDF will continue to operate in Lebanon with full force against Hizbullah. Hundreds of thousands of residents of southern Lebanon who evacuated northward will not return south of the Litani River until security for the [Israeli] residents of the north is ensured."
Katz said all bridges over the Litani River that had been used by Hizbullah to move operatives and weapons into southern Lebanon "have been blown up, and the IDF will control the remaining bridges and the security zone up to the Litani. The principle is clear: Where there is terror and missiles, there will be no homes and no residents, and the IDF will be inside." (Times of Israel)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Iran
- The Alternative to Wars of Choice Is Wars with Our Backs Against the Wall - Clifford D. May
America's military campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran is being condemned as "a war of choice, not a war of necessity." I'm here to make the case for wars of choice. My argument is simple: Delaying wars does not ensure lasting peace. On the contrary, delaying wars has often led to wars more costly in blood and treasure.
A war of choice is a conflict we decide to wage to achieve vital goals before our enemies push our backs up against the wall. If your enemy picks up a pistol, does that constitute an imminent threat? Or must you wait until you see his finger on the trigger - by which time it may too late for you to defend yourself?
The 2002 U.S. National Security Strategy that followed the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, explicitly endorsed preemptive action against gathering threats. CIA Director John Ratcliffe last week told the Senate Intelligence Committee that Iran posed a "constant threat to the United States...and posed an immediate threat" before the war began.
For decades, we have allowed the threat from the self-proclaimed jihadis in Tehran to metastasize. They've been building nuclear weapons facilities under mountains. They've been funding, arming, and instructing terrorist militias beyond their borders. They've plotted assassinations and kidnappings in America and Europe. They've been amassing thousands of drones and missiles.
President John F. Kennedy observed: "There are risks and costs to action, but they are far less than the long-range risks of comfortable inaction."
The writer is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
(Washington Times)
- More Evidence that U.S. Was Right to Act before Iranian Missile Threat Grew - Editorial
The rulers in Iran are hoping to move the war to a theater more favorable to their side: the negotiating table. But one of Iran's nonstarter demands is an unconstrained missile program - days after the regime fired at the American and British military base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
The launch is "the furthest ever attempted Iranian missile strike," the Institute for the Study of War notes. "The attack demonstrated that Iranian missiles can reach beyond the 2,000-km. limit that the regime has long claimed to have self-imposed." Diego Garcia is about double that distance from Iran.
For all the derision about "a war of choice," Mr. Trump was correct to act before Iranian missiles grow in number, range and accuracy. The reach underscores that the missile program isn't merely Israel's problem. The Iranians clearly aspire to put European cities in play, and eventually the U.S. homeland too. The shots fired at Diego Garcia are a moment of clarity about America's enemies. (Wall Street Journal)
- U.S. Must Extract Ironclad Commitments from Iran on Nuclear Disarmament and Missile Limits or Risk Watching the Regime Recover - Meir Ben Shabbat
Despite Iranian denials that advanced discussions between the parties are underway, every sign points to a mutual American and Iranian desire to reach an agreement.
In any case, for as long as the Iranian regime exists, it will not change its aspirations and will not change its ways. The current war will provide it with a clear justification for the view that only a military nuclear capability can guarantee its survival. Accordingly, it will spare no effort to achieve that.
The easing of military pressure will create conditions for the rapid recovery of the regime. To prevent it, Washington will need to keep economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation in place for a considerable period.
The nuclear issue is an additional challenge - not only the removal and destruction of the enriched uranium in Iran's possession, but also the prevention of any enrichment on Iranian soil, along with effective oversight mechanisms to permanently foreclose the possibility of producing or acquiring nuclear weapons.
Further challenges concern the imposition of limits on the missile program and halting Iranian support for proxy organizations.
Military pressure is working. The very fact that Iran is seeking to negotiate even after the elimination of its supreme leader is testimony to that.
The writer, head of the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, served as Israel's National Security Council head during 2017-2021. (Israel Hayom)
- How Is the Iran War Impacting Gaza? - Shimon Sherman
The eruption of the Iran war on Feb. 28 forced Israel to divert its primary air force, infantry and intelligence units toward the Iranian and Lebanese theaters. It compensated for its reduced footprint in Gaza by initiating a spike in targeted attacks on Hamas commanders throughout the strip.
At the same time, Hamas forces have significantly ramped up operations to secure control of the civilian population and to destroy rivals. The U.S. State Department recently verified footage documenting "masked Sahm [internal security] operatives physically tearing down the tents and stalls of displaced Gazans in Khan Yunis who refused to pay taxes, illustrating a brutal campaign to suppress internal dissent."
The core architecture of Hamas's financial solvency relied heavily on smuggling networks managed and directed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, noted that Iran was still giving significant aid to Hamas.
"Hamas understands that if this [Iranian] regime collapses or is weakened to the degree that it will not be able to continue supporting Hamas, they are in big trouble," he said. Multiple IRGC commanders responsible for collaboration with Palestinian terror groups were neutralized in the early days of the campaign.
The Iran war has had a deep financial impact on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, potentially dealing a blow to Gaza's long-term reconstruction prospects. Iran has systematically struck critical energy and civilian infrastructure across all six GCC states, leading to a 50% cut in its projected GDP growth rate for 2026.
Faced with direct physical damage to their territory and the existential economic threat of a prolonged regional war of attrition, the billions of Gulf dollars which were considered critical for the Gaza rebuilding plan are increasingly unlikely to materialize. (JNS)
Observations:
- Iran has established a selective passage regime through the Strait of Hormuz, exporting its own oil and natural gas while permitting safe passage to countries that "pay a toll" and denying transit to all others. Although Iran's military has been greatly weakened, it appears to retain significant residual capabilities, including large numbers of small boats, anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles, coastal artillery and rocket units, and numerous attack drones. Many of these drones could be launched from over 1,000 miles inland.
- While convoy operations and intensified attacks on Iran's military capabilities might temporarily relieve some pressure, they could come at a significant cost and take significant time, and they are not guaranteed to safeguard navigation. Achieving more durable success will require a complementary approach that involves applying further pressure on Iran's economy.
- The U.S. and Israel need to turn the regime's strategy against it by applying countervailing pressure on Iran's ability to use the Strait of Hormuz, making clear that if other states cannot use the strait, neither can Iran.
Tehran exports 90% of its oil through the loading terminals on Kharg Island, making it the Achilles' heel of the Iranian economy. Some have hinted that Marine forces might be tasked with seizing the island, but any U.S. ground elements involved would be vulnerable to prolonged bombardment from the mainland.
- The U.S. could respond with a distant blockade of Iran's oil exports, diverting Iranian "shadow tankers," then impounding and selling their cargo as was done in the past with tankers from Venezuela's "shadow fleet."
Washington should also consider impounding Iranian "shadow fleet" tankers located largely in Asia that serve as floating storage, holding nearly 140 million barrels of oil.
- About 80% of Iran's imports pass through Hormuz. Another option for the U.S. is a selective blockade, allowing ships largely carrying foodstuffs to Iran to pass while diverting those carrying raw materials, equipment, and industrial goods.
- Tehran has threatened global energy security and taken the global economy hostage. Allowing Iranian threats to persist indefinitely is unacceptable. Washington and its partners need to counter Iran's attacks in order to deter perpetual threats. At the same time, they must design a follow-on campaign to ensure freedom of navigation through the strait against a wounded but still dangerous and aggrieved regime.
Michael Eisenstadt is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute, where Brig.-Gen. (res.) Assaf Orion, former head of the IDF Strategic Planning Division, is an International Fellow.
|