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The Gaza War Is Testing Hizbullah's Strategic Capability

(Chatham House-UK) Dr. Lina Khatib - After Hamas' assault on Israel on Oct. 7, Hizbullah was the first to attack Israel on another front. Despite being the instigator of the fight, Hizbullah is not setting the agenda. Its main priority is survival rather than victory. Over the last four months, Hizbullah has been trying to retain its credibility as a major actor in Iran's "axis of resistance," while steering clear of escalation with Israel. Hizbullah knows that there is little appetite for all-out war among its supporters - and also that such a war would end up hurting, not serving, Iran. The majority of Israeli attacks on Lebanon have carefully targeted Hizbullah sites and personnel, exposing the vulnerability of Hizbullah's military and security apparatus. Hizbullah's inability to protect civilians in Lebanon will act as a brake on its actions. Hizbullah is unable to compensate Lebanese civilian households which have been affected by Israel's ongoing operations, in stark contrast to its large-scale compensation campaign in the aftermath of its war with Israel in 2006. At that time, Hizbullah largely delivered on its promises, due to Iranian backing and Gulf Arab funding of reconstruction in the south. But Hizbullah's ability to harness funding for its supporters is not what it once was, with a financial crisis in Lebanon, the halting of unconditional Gulf Arab aid, and stepped-up Western sanctions on Hizbullah's and Iran's international financial networks. For now, with Iran unwilling to be drawn into the Gaza war and domestic support uncertain, Hizbullah's hands are tied - despite its large arsenal and an Israeli assault that is set to widen. The writer is an Associate Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Program, at Chatham House policy institute in London.
2024-03-01 00:00:00
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