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U.S.-North Korea Summit: Crisis Management, Not Nuclear Resolution

(Jerusalem Post) Emily B. Landau - Can Kim Jong-Un seriously be expected to give up the nuclear capability that his father and he worked so hard to achieve? Is there a realistic chance that North Korea will denuclearize - completely, verifiably, and irreversibly? Not much. North Korea wants lowered tensions and economic assistance. If the past is any guide, the North Koreans have no problem promising denuclearization if it helps achieve those goals. But to actually deliver? Hard to imagine. Giving up its nuclear weapons means not only exposing North Korea to possible moves toward unification on the Korean peninsula that would spell the end of North Korea, but also a significant loss of international status. So Kim's promises need to be taken with not a small measure of skepticism. Nevertheless, tension-reduction is a mutually beneficial goal, and Trump was correct to agree to meet Kim and work to calm down the situation. At the end of the day, decades of failed diplomacy with North Korea led to the sad result that it is a nuclear state, and at this late stage that situation is unlikely to be reversed. But a change of context regarding U.S.-North Korean relations could also change the threat value of Kim's nuclear arsenal. Meanwhile, in the process that ensues, the U.S. would be well advised to use this opportunity to put a stop to North Korea's sale of nuclear knowhow, technologies, and components to whoever will pay in hard cash. North Korea must be pressed to end these activities, first and foremost the dangerous cooperation with Iran in the missile and nuclear realms. The writer heads the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv.
2018-06-13 00:00:00
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