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The Cordesman Criteria: How to Prevent War with Iran

(Washington Post) Charles Krauthammer - Either Israel is engaged in the most elaborate ruse since the Trojan horse or it is on the cusp of a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. What's alarming is not just Iran's increasing store of enriched uranium or the growing sophistication of its rocketry. It's also the increasingly menacing annihilationist threats emanating from Iran's leaders. Israel's existence is "an insult to all humanity," says President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Explains the country's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Israel is "a true cancer tumor on this region that should be cut off." Everyone wants to avoid military action, surely the Israelis above all. They can expect a massive counterattack from Iran, 50,000 rockets launched from Lebanon, Islamic Jihad firing from Gaza, and worldwide terror against Jewish and Israeli targets, as happened last month in Bulgaria. Yet Israel will not sit idly by in the face of the most virulent genocidal threats since Nazi Germany. Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argues, "There are times when the best way to prevent war is to clearly communicate that it is possible." Today, the threat of a U.S. attack is not taken seriously. Cordesman proposes: 1.The U.S. establish clear red lines - real limits on negotiations - to convince Iran that the only alternative to a deal is preemptive strikes. 2.Make it clear to Iran that it has no successful options. Either its program must be abandoned in a negotiated deal on generous terms from the West or its facilities will be physically destroyed. 3.Give Iran a face-saving way out. Some have suggested the step of requesting congressional authorization for the use of force if Iran does not negotiate denuclearization. First, that's the right way to do it. No serious military action should be taken without congressional approval. Second, Iran might actually respond to a threat backed by a strong bipartisan majority of the American people - thus avoiding both war and the other nightmare scenario, a nuclear Iran.
2012-08-24 00:00:00
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