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An Underwhelming Approach to Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

(Washington Post) Reuel Marc Gerecht and Mark Dubowitz - Like his former patron Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the true father of Iran's nuclear program, supreme leader Ali Khamenei has supported the atomic quest since the mid-1980s, when it was still covert. He has spent billions to develop every component of a nuclear-armed missile. Yet Western negotiators want to hope that sanctions have caused enough pain that Khamenei will have no choice but to view nuclear weapons as harmful to his rule. If the West cannot stop Iran's technological advances in centrifuge production - and it remains unclear whether Western intelligence services know where the Iranian regime is manufacturing these machines - then even shutting down the known enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow offers, at best, a pause. Increasingly proficient centrifuges will allow for much smaller, hard-to-detect facilities that can rapidly process low-enriched uranium into bomb-grade material. A new red line at 20% enrichment would leave Jerusalem two options: strike or give up. The euphoria in Western and certain Israeli circles that Judgment Day has been avoided will vanish rapidly as it becomes obvious how much Khamenei can cheat with this new standard. Gerecht, a former Iranian specialist in the CIA's clandestine service, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Dubowitz is executive director of the foundation and head of its Iran Energy Project.
2012-05-23 00:00:00
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