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How Will Assad Fall?

(Council on Foreign Relations) Elliott Abrams - How will Assad fall? There are two possibilities that head the list. One possibility is that the army will split, largely on sectarian lines. There have been numerous other reports about defections in the army but it is difficult to assess whether they have yet reached a significant size. If the demonstrations grow, I assume the numbers of defectors will grow as Sunni troops refuse to shoot peaceful and unarmed Sunni demonstrators. But there is another possibility, that the Alawite "Establishment," civilian and military, will remove Bashar from power in a kind of "palace coup." This would only happen, I believe, if the economic and financial sanctions grow stronger and stronger and demonstrations continue. There are other possibilities: perhaps the Sunni and Christian business community will turn against Assad if sanctions are tough enough, and will help bring him down. Perhaps over time hundreds of thousands will flee to Turkey, giving the Turks the incentive they need to bring Bashar down.
2011-08-30 00:00:00
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