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The Timeframe for Preventing Iran's Nuclearization

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Michael Herzog - While Israelis talk in terms of months, Americans talk in terms of years. These differing timeframes are the result of different approaches to defining the "point of no return" in the Iranian nuclear project. The Israeli approach emphasizes the time needed for Iran to master the fuel cycle and become capable of independently enriching uranium to a level of purity suitable for a nuclear device. Israeli intelligence estimates that it could take the Iranians six to twelve months to overcome technical hurdles, and then about three more years to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear device. From the Israeli point of view, once Iran masters the technology of the fuel cycle, it could move secretly to build atomic bombs. The prevailing American approach identifies the point of no return as when Iran gathers enough fissile material to complete its first nuclear device. The most recent intelligence testimony to Congress estimates this achievement as taking no less than five years, and probably more. Most Western intelligence agencies believe that Iran is running a parallel, clandestine nuclear program in addition to its openly declared program. IDF Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog is a visiting military fellow at The Washington Institute.
2005-05-27 00:00:00
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