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WikiLeaks and the Arabs

(National Interest) Shibley Telhami - While WikiLeaks showed the extent to which Arab leaders almost universally worry about rising Iranian influence, their attitudes toward military action were far from unanimous. Israel's Mossad chief, Meir Dagan, reportedly worried about Qatar's cozying up with Iran, so much so that he recommended that the U.S. close the American base there. Most of Jordan's and Egypt's expressed concerns focused on Iranian influence and meddling in Arab affairs, particularly in their neighborhoods. But the biggest gap in the recent coverage of the story has been in understanding Arab public opinion toward Iran and how this affects government calculations. In fact, Iran has the ability to play the Arab-public-opinion card and reach out to groups that threaten the control of Arab governments. And there is evidence that they have succeeded in doing just that, even beyond the rising power of their allies, particularly Hizbullah in Lebanon. Last August, I released the 2010 Arab public opinion poll results, which indicated that Arabs were more open to Iran's nuclear program, including the possibility of nuclear-weapons production, than ever before. In an open question about the world leader Arabs admired most, Ahmadinejad was chosen by 12% - third place after Erdogan and Chavez. When those polled were asked to identify the two states that posed the biggest threat to them: 88% identified Israel, 77% the U.S. and 10% Iran. The writer is Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Saban Center of the Brookings Institution.
2010-12-03 08:00:44
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