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Can Syria's Assad Regime Make Peace with Israel?

[Washington Institute for Near East Policy] J. Scott Carpenter - U.S. and European observers believe that Israel's new government will seek peace with Damascus in an attempt to pry the Syrian regime away from Tehran. Yet peace with Syria remains highly unlikely for a fundamental reason: without Israel as an enemy, Syria's minority regime loses its sole rationale for retaining power. The consolidation of Hafez al-Assad's power in 1970 relied heavily on loyal Alawite officers in the military and security apparatus, yet Alawites, the backbone of the Baathist regime, comprise only 12% of the population. To maintain this minority dominance, the Baathist regime imposed a state of emergency 46 years ago, providing the state a vast array of tools to monitor all social communication and to restrict individual freedoms of expression and association. Since the "threat" from Israel has been the essential and necessary myth for retaining the authoritarian grip of the Alawite minority in Damascus, losing it would eliminate the Assad regime's raison d'etre. Given the ruling clique's view that peace and regime preservation are zero-sum options, to seek a peace agreement is to chase a mirage.
2009-04-24 06:00:00
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